Methodology

Our Methodology

Saudi Arabia Houses applies a rigorous, multi-source methodology to produce market intelligence that meets institutional standards. Every data point, trend assessment, and market characterisation published on this terminal is grounded in verifiable source material. This page details our complete data sourcing, verification, editorial, and analytical process — the framework that ensures readers can rely on our coverage for research, investment analysis, and strategic decision-making in a market valued between USD 69.5 billion and USD 132.3 billion (2024-2025 estimates) with 93,700 residential transactions recorded in H1 2025 alone.

Primary Data Sources

Our intelligence draws from four tiers of authoritative sources, cross-referenced to minimise the risk of single-source error. This tiered approach ensures that no single data provider’s methodology, bias, or potential error propagates unchecked through our analysis.

Tier 1 — Government Statistical Authorities: The General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) publishes quarterly real estate price indices covering residential, commercial, and agricultural land segments across all 13 administrative regions. GASTAT’s price index has tracked acceleration from 1.7% year-on-year in Q2 2024 through 4.3% in Q1 2025 and moderation to 3.2% in Q2 2025. We ingest these releases within 48 hours of publication, cross-referencing against advisory firm data to identify any divergences that require investigation.

The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) provides monthly and quarterly credit data including total real estate loans (SAR 951.3 billion at year-end 2025), retail mortgage volumes (SAR 698.8 billion), corporate real estate lending (SAR 223.4 billion), bank capital adequacy ratios (approximately 19%), and REIT performance metrics. SAMA data forms the backbone of our mortgage analysis and REIT coverage.

The Real Estate General Authority (REGA) publishes regulatory frameworks, licensing data, market structure updates, and its own market size forecast (USD 101.62 billion by 2029 at 8% CAGR). REGA’s data is particularly valuable for tracking foreign ownership implementation, licensing activity, and digital platform adoption.

Tier 2 — International Advisory Firms: Knight Frank Saudi Arabia, JLL KSA, CBRE Saudi Arabia, Cavendish Maxwell, and Deloitte publish quarterly market reports providing city-level pricing data, transaction volumes, supply pipeline tracking, and rental market analysis. Each firm employs distinct methodologies — Knight Frank focuses on transaction-based analysis, JLL publishes supply-demand models, CBRE provides valuation-based assessments, Cavendish Maxwell tracks granular price movements, and Deloitte offers macro-economic context. We triangulate data points across multiple advisory sources before publishing consensus figures.

When advisory firm sources disagree — as they frequently do on metrics such as Riyadh apartment pricing, supply pipeline estimates, or yield calculations — we present the range and note the methodological differences rather than arbitrarily selecting one figure. For example, Riyadh apartment pricing is reported as SAR 4,971-5,200/sqm based on data from both Sands of Wealth and Cavendish Maxwell, reflecting the range of measurement approaches rather than a false precision.

Tier 3 — Developer Disclosures: Tadawul-listed developers including Dar Al Arkan (4300, total assets USD 9.3 billion), Al Akaria (4020, H1 2025 revenue SAR 1.11 billion), Jabal Omar Development (4250), and Taiba Investments (4090, market value USD 2.8 billion) file quarterly financial statements with audited revenue, asset, and project data through the Saudi Exchange’s disclosure system. ROSHN and NHC, as government-related entities, publish project updates through official channels including Oxford Business Group and Forbes rankings.

Our developer profiles synthesise these disclosures into analytical narratives, tracking financial performance, project delivery timelines, strategic positioning, and competitive dynamics. We verify developer-reported data against independent sources — for example, ROSHN’s USD 2.5 billion SEDRA sales figure is cross-referenced against Knight Frank transaction data for the SEDRA development area.

Tier 4 — Independent Research Houses and Media: Grand View Research, IMARC Group, Mordor Intelligence, Global Property Guide, Market Report Analytics, and ResearchAndMarkets provide market sizing, forecasting, and analytical frameworks that complement official and advisory data. We use these sources primarily for market size estimates, CAGR projections, and segment analysis (residential, commercial, luxury, office). Media sources including Arab News, Economy Middle East, AGBI, Construction Week Online, and Zawya provide real-time reporting on market developments, regulatory changes, and developer announcements that inform our coverage between quarterly data releases.

Verification Standards

We apply a three-point verification standard to all quantitative claims published on the Site:

1. Source Attribution: Every numerical data point carries its source and reference period. Readers can trace any figure back to its origin publication. We do not publish “industry estimates” or “market sources say” attributions — every number has a named source. Where data comes from paid research reports that readers may not have access to, we note this in our coverage.

2. Cross-Reference Check: Where possible, we verify data points against at least two independent sources. For example, Riyadh price growth figures are cross-referenced between GASTAT indices (which showed the Riyadh region at +10.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024), Cavendish Maxwell quarterly data (+10.6% for 2025), and Global Property Guide assessments. When sources agree within a reasonable margin, we publish a consensus figure. When they disagree materially, we present the range with source attribution.

3. Temporal Accuracy: We label all data with its reference period (e.g., “Q3 2025,” “H1 2025,” “year-end 2025”) and avoid presenting dated figures as current. This temporal labelling is essential in a rapidly evolving market where quarterly price movements can be significant — the GASTAT index showed acceleration from 1.7% to 4.3% within four quarters, making the reference period critical to interpretation. Our market data section timestamps every data set, and our editorial process includes periodic audits to ensure published data reflects the most recent available releases.

Data Disagreement Protocol

Market size estimates illustrate why our data disagreement protocol matters. Current estimates range from USD 69.5 billion (Market Report Analytics) to USD 132.3 billion (Grand View Research) — a nearly 2x spread. This disagreement is not an error; it reflects genuine methodological differences:

• Grand View Research uses a broader scope that includes land transactions, development activity, and ancillary services
• IMARC Group (USD 77.2 billion) focuses on narrower revenue definitions
• Mordor Intelligence (USD 72.84 billion for 2026) employs yet another methodology
• REGA’s own forecast (USD 101.62 billion by 2029) represents the government’s institutional assessment

Rather than selecting one “correct” figure, we present the full range with source attribution and explain the methodological drivers of disagreement. This approach respects the reader’s intelligence and provides a more complete picture than false precision would allow.

Update Frequency

Content categories follow defined update schedules tied to their primary data sources:

• Market overview: Updated quarterly following GASTAT price index releases and SAMA credit data publications
• Price trends: Updated quarterly with GASTAT price index data, supplemented by advisory firm quarterly reports
• City profiles: Updated quarterly with the latest advisory firm data from JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE, and Cavendish Maxwell
• Developer profiles: Updated quarterly following Tadawul financial filings (interim and annual reports)
• Investment analysis: Updated upon regulatory changes, significant market shifts, or new data releases
• Giga-project profiles: Updated upon scope changes, delivery milestones, funding announcements, or fiscal adjustments
• Dashboard data: Updated quarterly with the latest available metrics from all sources
• Reference pages: Updated upon regulatory or policy changes affecting frameworks, registration, or taxation

Between scheduled updates, we publish real-time coverage of material developments — regulatory announcements (such as the foreign ownership law or rent freeze), major developer launches, fiscal policy changes, and giga-project scope revisions.

Editorial Independence

Saudi Arabia Houses maintains absolute editorial independence. We do not accept payment from developers, government entities, real estate agencies, advisory firms, or any market participant in exchange for coverage, favourable treatment, or editorial influence. Our revenue model relies on Google AdSense advertising, which operates independently of editorial decisions — Google’s automated ad placement system selects advertisements based on page content and user preferences, without any input from or coordination with our editorial team.

We do not publish sponsored content, paid placements, advertorial material, or “native advertising” that blends promotional content with editorial coverage. Any future partnership or sponsorship arrangements will be clearly disclosed, visibly labelled, and physically separated from editorial content. Our editorial team has no knowledge of advertising revenue at the page or section level and makes no editorial decisions based on advertising considerations.

This independence extends to our coverage of government entities and government-related developers. While we source data from REGA, SAMA, and GASTAT, we are not affiliated with any Saudi government entity and maintain the same analytical rigour and critical perspective toward government data that we apply to private sector sources. When government forecasts appear optimistic — such as delivery timelines for giga-projects that have subsequently been revised — we report the revisions alongside the original targets.

Correction Policy

When errors are identified — whether by our editorial team, readers, source organisations, or through our periodic accuracy audits — we issue corrections promptly and transparently:

• Minor factual corrections (dates, figures, spellings) are updated in-place with a notation in the article metadata recording the correction date and nature of the change. The original error and corrected value are both documented internally.
• Material corrections that alter analytical conclusions are published with an editor’s note explaining the original error, the corrected information, and any implications for the analysis. The editor’s note is placed prominently at the beginning of the affected article.
• Retractions are issued if an article’s core thesis is found to be unsupported by evidence or based on unreliable source material. Retracted articles remain accessible with a retraction notice but are removed from navigation and search indexing.

To submit a correction, contact info@saudiarabiahouses.com with the subject line “Correction.” We acknowledge correction requests within 48 hours and publish verified corrections within one business week.

Analytical Framework

Our market analysis follows a consistent five-step framework applied across all content categories:

1. Quantitative Foundation: Every assessment begins with data — pricing, transaction volumes, yields, supply figures, mortgage volumes, and demographic indicators. We present the numbers before the narrative, allowing readers to evaluate whether our conclusions follow from the evidence.

2. Contextual Analysis: Data is placed in context through four lenses: historical comparison (e.g., the 18.2% 2014-2019 price correction and subsequent 26.7% recovery), geographic benchmarking (e.g., comparing Riyadh yields to Dubai, London, or Singapore), policy analysis (e.g., the impact of the rent freeze on REIT performance), and structural analysis (e.g., the relationship between mortgage growth and homeownership rates).

3. Risk Assessment: We identify risks and uncertainties explicitly rather than defaulting to optimistic projections. Our coverage addresses oil price dependency (fiscal breakeven exceeds USD 90/barrel versus Brent at USD 60-65), giga-project execution risk (NEOM scaled to 2.4-5km pilot, New Murabba pushed to 2040, PIF spending cuts of 20%+), supply-demand imbalances (105,000 units planned for 2026-2027 versus 115,000 annual demand), and policy risks (rent freeze impact on yields, foreign ownership implementation uncertainty).

4. Forward Indicators: Where appropriate, we track leading indicators that provide early signals of market direction: building permits, mortgage application volumes (28.3% annual increase through February 2025), developer pipeline announcements, construction contract awards (below USD 30 billion in 2025, down 60% from USD 71 billion in 2024), and demographic trends (45% of nationals under 20, 15.7 million non-Saudi residents).

5. Actionable Conclusions: Our analysis aims to support decision-making, not merely inform. We identify specific investment implications, timing considerations, risk-adjusted return assessments, and market segment opportunities. This action-oriented approach distinguishes market intelligence from market commentary.

Limitations

We acknowledge several limitations in our methodology that readers should consider:

Data Lag: Official data from GASTAT and SAMA is published with a 1-3 month lag. Advisory firm reports are published quarterly. This means our coverage reflects the most recent available data, which may not capture the very latest market movements, particularly during periods of rapid change.

Scope Constraints: Our coverage focuses on the five major markets (Riyadh, Jeddah, DMA, Makkah, Madinah) and on nationally significant developments. Coverage of secondary cities and rural markets is less comprehensive due to data availability limitations.

Forward-Looking Uncertainty: Growth projections, CAGR forecasts, and market size estimates are inherently uncertain. We present multiple forecasts from different sources to illustrate the range of reasonable outcomes rather than endorsing any single projection as definitive.

Source Dependencies: Our analysis depends on the accuracy and timeliness of third-party data sources. While our cross-referencing protocol reduces single-source risk, errors in multiple sources would propagate through our analysis.

This methodology ensures that Saudi Arabia Houses delivers intelligence that is not merely informative but analytically useful for decision-making. For questions about our methodology, contact info@saudiarabiahouses.com.

Browse our market data, city profiles, and investment analysis to see this methodology in practice. For institutional-grade research and custom analysis, visit Premium Intelligence.